It is now clear as sunlight that China has launched itself full-fledged to occupy the vacuum created by the withdrawal of the American forces from Iraq and Afghanistan, which left the international terrorist outfits like the Al Qaeda and ISIS almost without work and much gainful employment. The region has been afflicted for long by super power rivalry, military control and commercial influence. During the Cold War, ideology provided a semblance of justification for it as the conflict was between communism and capitalism, open society and iron clad one, dictatorship and democracy.
After the cold war and subsequent withdrawal of the former USSR on its dissolution, the Americans invested heavily in terms of foreign policy, military and economic aid and a variety of support to influence, control and guide governments in the countries in the region. Pakistan emerged as one of the most reliable partner in this unholy international game plan for the Americans, whose support it enjoyed for long. It was American military aid and money that helped Pakistan rise to the stature of a terrorist factory of the world.
As the USSR had put to excellent use the Taliban during the cold War years, the Americans used the home grown Taliban type terrorists of Pakistan. So long Pakistan supported the American military operations in Afghanistan and intelligence in Iran and former USSR republics, it got a favoured nation’s treatment from it.
Meanwhile America and other superpowers ignored Pakistan’s use of terrorism against India as a state policy. It was only 9/11 which made America view things differently. Subsequent terror attacks throughout the world convinced the nations of the civilized world that terrorists were a real threat to their security and it was no bilateral problem. However, it took them many years to identify the source of supply of such huge trained manpower skilled in warfare and operation of military hardware. Ultimately, against their wishes they had to accept the fact that it was none other than Pakistan, nurtured and reared by them to fight communism and Al Qaeda.
The discovery of Bin Laden, ensconced in the secure precincts of the military cantonment of Pakistan, left no doubt about the complicity of Pakistan in nurturing terrorist fighters and supplying them to the terror outfits everywhere in the world.
Laden’s discovery angered the American tax payer to an extent which did not permit any cover up in the name of intelligence or foreign policy. it was not only American lives or tax payers’ money but the threat to the very existence of America.
Attacks on Europe, Australia, Africa, Middle East etc forced everyone to think alike.
The mass migration of refugees to Europe was the last strike that compelled the liberal societies to take a hard look. But it was too little and too late.
While the world was thinking of containing terrorism, countries like China were busy drawing plans to harness the power and infrastructure of the terrorist outfits to advance their economic interests.
China seized the opportunity before others could even think about it and the result was OBOR (One Border, One Road) and CPEC(China Pakistan Economic Corridor). Now China is the Patron God of terrorism, terrorist outfits and the Global Terrorist Factory called Pakistan.
It has extended total support to Pakistan and is today its most valued friend: America no more qualifies for that friendliness.
China has two objectives in this move: (1) It contains the spread of American influence in the region (against the Cold War doctrine of containment of communism) and, (2) it monopolises major commerce in the region and beyond, reducing opportunities to the local people but creating millions of jobs for the Chinese people.
There is only one hurdle in its way- India. India is a rising economic power and a full bloomed democracy with a popular leader like Narendra Modi. It has weighed all its options and assayed the gains of befriending Pakistan and unfriending India. India has given it a cause for conflict by refusing to join the CPEC/OBOR. China imagines to harm India by encouraging Pakistan to continue terrorist attacks on India.
It is the same situation that prevailed before 9/11 happened: the superpowers treated Pakistan sponsored terrorism against India as a bilateral issue. But time proved that it was not, as it was a global issue.
The Chinese game is not only a bilateral issue between India & China, it is a global issue which is going to affect the economy of the world.
No nation will be able to escape the consequences of this treaty of the two dictatorships- China & Pakistan Military (which is the de facto government of Pakistan whose writ runs above the elected prime minister and the supreme court). If China is holding out threats of war to India, it is with a long term wider objective: it is challenging the super powers, especially the United States of America.
China-America trade balance is in favour of China heavily; China’s loans and investments in trillions of dollars in America can create economic instability in America if withdrawn immediately; the Chinese own millions of residential properties worth100s of Billions in America; China is the manufacturing hub for large American corporations; and is a Super Power in its own right. By squeezing it in the world’s markets in Asia, Africa and Europe, China plans to reduce the area of American influence.
Should these global powers not react instantly without wasting another minute? Or would they prefer to sit quietly till the effects of Chinese moves start get felt?